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Good day…. And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, afterwards two rotten to the amount canicule actuality with arctic rain, and gray skies, the sun came out yesterday, and it was an actually admirable day! I went alfresco aboriginal and began singing, “It’s a admirable morning, I anticipate I’ll go alfresco for awhile… and aloof smile, I anticipate I booty in some apple-pie beginning air”…. Yes, it was a day to be outside…. Finally! I absence my morning walks to the accouter that overlooks the ocean, to watch the ocean movements, and absorb up aboriginal morning sun… But anon the apple will about-face on its arbor and the warmer canicule actuality will become the norm…. And I won’t accept to delay canicule to go aback outside! I was alert off and on, all weekend to Sirius XM’s top 1,000 archetypal bedrock songs…. I didn’t vote on any of these songs, but I would altercate with how low in the standings (400-500) some of my beloved bedrock songs concluded up…. Oh, well, it’s all commodity I accept no ascendancy over, so I aloof listened and enjoyed! John Lennon greets me this morning with his song: Nobody Told me…..
I abhorrence that one day in in the abreast future, abounding broker is action to sing that aforementioned thing, “Nobody told me”…. Aback if they had aloof listened to me, and not some talking arch banal jockey, they would accept been told! I accept accompany that are banal jockeys and I agnosticism they like me talking about them abnormally like I do, so I’ll move on… But don’t worry, I’ll accept added for them aback we allocution about the abstracts prints aftermost anniversary later….
I additionally apperceive that I’ve been absolute centered on the U.S. abridgement and things that will change here, but at the aforementioned time I additionally apperceive that this is not bedfast to the U.S. every country, but the ones with little debt, like Russia, and Singapore, will accept the aforementioned problems as the U.S. but on a abate scale, so that’s why I focus on the U.S. because, well, that’s area I live, buy gas, advantage and giggles, (although not a lot of those giggles lately!) And booty them to the woodshed because we should accept accepted better, we should accept done better, and now we accept a big blend on our hands….
So… the dollar bugs backed off on Friday, and accustomed the currencies to run a little, with the euro aggressive aback aloft 1.08 on the day… But Gold, which had put in two absolute acceptable up days, gave aback $3 on Friday, but bankrupt at $1,729.00 so, all-embracing it was a acceptable anniversary for the agleam metal….
The Gold and dollar accord has been absolute aberrant in the accomplished year, as Gold has rallied while the dollar rallied, and awash off aback the dollar has awash off… Hmmm…. Opposites are still in comedy here, but makes you wonder, doesn’t it? I beggarly for the about 50 years that the Gold and the dollar accept floated ( a bedraggled float if you will) they were consistently affective adverse anniversary other, until 2019….. Does this beggarly that Gold has confused into a new trading accord with the dollar that will become the new norm? That’s one of those “unknowns” that I don’t accept an acknowledgment to folks…. Let’s aloof adore Gold’s advancement moves and booty them any which way they come, eh?
Last anniversary I said a lot of things and one of them that I approved to point out was that the Fed, in my opinion, has been abaft the capital manipulations of Gold…. They accord the flash and nod to the JPMorgans, who if they played their cards straight, would break out of trouble, but instead, they got greedy, and now acquisition themselves angry off acknowledged apparel adjoin their trading practices…. The Fed is on almanac as adage they can’t acquiesce Gold to go to its accurate price, because that would ben that aggrandizement was active fast, and that’s one affair the Fed can’t have, aggrandizement active advancement quickly…. Slow, sloth-like moves of aggrandizement to the upside what the Fed needs and wants…. Unfortunately, they haven’t gotten what they’ve formed so adamantine to get… But that’s not action to stop them for aggravating to accompany about ascent aggrandizement to aerate away the debt….
OK…. Aback to things that are accepted by all…. Well, annihilation like some contempo abstracts to deathwatch us up, and get our claret flowing…. I watched an account with one of my beloved economists, Danielle Di Martino Booth on Friday, and in a YouTube video from 4/20, she said, “it absolutely grates on me aback I apprehend this alleged the “COVID Crisis”…. Global debt levels at the end of 2019 were $255 Trillion. These were accidents cat-and-mouse to happen. There could accept been any alfresco accident to alpha this”
Yes, like I’ve been adage aback the Middle of March, this bread-and-butter shutdown, appropriately bringing about all the Fed moves to advice Corporations may accept appear eventually due to the COVID virus but it was apprenticed to appear eventually or later, because you accept Corporations that accept been BAD with their corresponding money, folks…. They aloof kept action into debt that they weren’t anytime action to be able to pay back, and a lot of that debt was advancing due this year, so we were about to get to the accepted “cheese that binds”, but afresh forth came a spider and sat bottomward beside her, and the Fed came to their rescue….
But why? Weren’t we all accomplished in economics classes (I’m talking to the earlier association here, because the economics adolescent kids takes is boilerplate abreast what I learned!) that aback a Corporation does bad, that you jus acquiesce them to book bankruptcy, and see if they can assignment out a accord to comeback, contrarily it’s a case “see ya, wouldn’t appetite to be ya”? But in 2008 we got a aftertaste of the how the Gov’t. either the White House, Treasury or Fed, got to accept who survived and who failed…. Does the name Bear Stearns amphitheatre a bell, or how about Lehman Bros.? And now we’re aback to acceptance the admiral that be adjudge his all over again… Who will it be this time that brings armegeddon to the streets?
In account from abroad, there was some big account from India over the weekend, as Templeton bankrupt 6 band funds in the country, claiming that it was due to a abridgement of liquidity… I don’t alive in India, so I don’t apperceive how this was beheld by the bodies there. I do apperceive that if that happened actuality in the U.S. investors would be panicking…
Late Friday night, longtime clairvoyant Bob, beatific me this link, and so now I’ll allotment it with you, but…. To me the aftermost branch says it all, and it says: “The Fed has printed $2.26 abundance aback March 11 to aerate asset prices and band out asset holders and Wall Street. If the Fed had advance that $2.26 abundance appropriately over the 130 actor households in the US, anniversary would accept accustomed $17,380. But this was helicopter money for Wall Street and the affluent that were accident allotment their abundance in the sell-off. Those are the association that amount to the Fed.”
And you can acquisition it all here: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/23/fed-slashed-qe-further-still-hasnt-bought-junk-bonds-or-etfs/
OK, let’s get to the absolute prints aftermost week… Batting advance off is the Weekly Unemployment claims, which added accession 4.43 actor in the Easter beneath week, to put the absolute in the aftermost 4 weeks over 26 Million! That’s basically all the jobs that were created in the aftermost 10 years of apathetic expansion…. I know, I know, you’re saying, but already businesses accessible up all these bodies will go aback to work…. Really? Afterwards all I’ve talked about with the change in people’s angle on things you still accept that is action to happen? Not a snowball’s adventitious in hell that happens, folks….
In addition, we additionally saw rot on the vin in Durable Goods Orders, which fell from 1.1% in Feb. to -14.4% in March…. Remember, March was alone abeyance the aftermost two weeks of the month, April was a full-on ages of the shutdown…. I’m aloof saying….
The Markit PMI which is a acceptable indicator of what the civic ISM (manufacturing index) will attending like, fell this ages to a absolute recession absolute 36.9, from the 48.5 in March… This is bad folks… Oh, and I can’t balloon the rot on the apartment bazaar either…. New Home Sales in March fell to 627,000 bottomward from a Feb cardinal of 742,000…. That’s a HUGE drop….
And finally, assuredly I say, Consumer Sentiment hit the skids…. The April cardinal was 71.8 bottomward from a March cardinal of 89.1…. Accession HUGE drop, for sure!
And ambit aback to Industrial Production…. The Washington Post had this to say about Industrial Production: “The declivity in action — which includes achievement from factories, utilities and oil and gas producers — “dwarfs any abatement during the Great Recession,” Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics writes in a note.
Oh, my! Aback is anybody in the banal bazaar amphitheatre action to stop assertive that this rot on the economy’s backcountry will be removed immediately, afterwards the abridgement starts up again? Because it’s not action to folks! Bodies are NOT action to blitz out and alpha spending afresh already the all-clear horn is sounded…. They won’t assurance who they’re continuing abutting to in lines, so let’s not go to the line! They aren’t action to see this as commodity that’s gone forever, and accordingly those that still accept advantageous jobs, will be extenuative to furnish their reserves…. And I could go on, but this is not action to be “alright by the night” folks… coffer on it!
Oh, and the Fed’s FOMC Meets this week…. I’m of the assessment that the banal jockeys are all captivation their aggregate breaths in apprehension of Fed Chairman Jay Powell, accepting commodity up his sleeve, like maybe “negative absorption rates?” But Powell fabricated it bright in March that he doesn’t see the U.S. defective abrogating absorption rates… He said, then: “We do not see abrogating action ante as acceptable to be an adapted action acknowledgment actuality in the United States…” So, that commodity up his sleeve, is action to attending added like Bullwinkle and his advertisement that he had annihilation up his sleeve! So, what can he advertise to accompany the banal jockeys back? Well, aloof for grins, he could advertise that the Fed is action to buy equities….
Why not? They’ve action to buy Corp clutter bonds, the abutting footfall is to buy that corporation’s banal too…. But he ability accept to save that for about bottomward the line….
I’ll aloof say this about what’s action on appropriate now…. Do you anticipate that Japanese investors anticipation aback in 1990 that their banal bazaar advertise off was action to aftermost 3 decades, and that the Coffer Of Japan would be affairs added stocks than investors, but the banal bazaar is still 50% off its highs of 1990? I don’t anticipate you could accept had one Japanese banal jockey anticipate that, and the aforementioned goes for actuality in the U.S., they aloof don’t see that happening…. Why? Because every banal jockey this ancillary of Eden accept been active cogent their audience that the Fed has their back, and not to worry…. I bet if they fabricated a cine of the Japanese banal bazaar about 1990, that the Japanese banal jockeys had the aforementioned conversations with their clients….
To recap…. The dollar bugs assuredly backed off on Friday aftermost week, and the currencies rallied, and are still on the assemblage advance this morning, as I write…. Gold didn’t see the dollar weakness as an befalling to accretion alongside currencies on Friday, and absent $3 on the day. Gold is bottomward accession $14 in aboriginal trading this morning, as the Dollar Basis has slipped aback beneath 100…. Templeton bankrupt their band basis funds in India over the weekend… A abridgement of clamminess was the acumen for the closing of the 6 funds….
For What It’s Worth…. Well, I mentioned this aloft that the access for U.S. crank Corporations is clear… The go into defalcation and see if they can acquisition investors that will accommodate the company…. Afore action bust…. Well, the above Big retailer, J.C. Penny has done aloof that, filed for bankruptcy, or I beggarly is action to…. And you can acquisition that commodity here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jcpenney-prepares-file-bankruptcy
Or, here’s your snippet: “It’s assuredly here. Afterwards a decade of administration turnover, abreast misses, aftermost minute rescues, and one adventurous (sic) if adverse attack at an activist turnaround, one of the best iconic U.S. retailers and capital anchors, J.C. Penney, is advancing to book for bankruptcy.
According to the Journal, J.C. Penney is in avant-garde talks for defalcation allotment with a accumulation of lenders, a assurance the afflicted banker about to accomplish a appointment to 1 Bowling Green. JCP is in discussions with absolute lenders including Wells Fargo, Coffer of America and JPMorgan for a debtor-in-possession accommodation that would accumulate the department-store chain’s operations adjourned during a court-supervised bankruptcy, according to bodies accustomed with the matter.
The DIP accommodation would be almost $800 actor to $1 billion, with some of that money potentially including absolute debt, and conference all the added apart creditors who will end up with a block of the post-petition equity, bold of advance it is not a Chapter 7.
The Journal sources said that a defalcation filing could booty abode aural the abutting few weeks, and absolutely afore May 15 as JCP entered into a 30-day adroitness aeon afterwards missing an absorption acquittal due to bondholders on April 15. It is accessible creditors access into a abstinence acceding if the aggregation needs added time to adamant out negotiations afore filing, but the endgame is clear.
Should the abeyance of the abridgement aftermost for several added months, or should a additional beachcomber of coronavirus infection bang the U.S., companies in all added industries are accepted to chase suit.”Chuck again…. Man, I accept to acquaint you, aback in the 70’s I went to J.C. Penny for aloof about everything…. I haven’t set bottom in the J.C. Penny abundance in 20 years….
Currencies today 4/27/20 American Style: A$.6460, kiwi .6055, C$ .7107, euro 1.0848, admirable 1.2428, Swiss $1.0256, European Style: rand 18.8136, krone 10.5722, SEK 10.0385, forint 326.42, zloty 4.1743, koruna 25.1333, RUB 74.54, yen 107.05, sing 1.4187, HKD 7.7498, INR 75.62, China 7.0809, peso 24.82, BRL 5.5893, Dollar Basis 99.90, Oil $12.23, 10-year .62%, Silver $15.16, Platinum $759.48, Palladium $1,969.05, and Gold… $1,715.32
That’s it for today… I apologize for the apathy of the letter this morning… I had a bad night, and didn’t get abundant sleep, so aback I assuredly got to beddy-bye at 4:30am this morning, I angry off my anxiety and said, I’ll address the letter aback I deathwatch up…. So, sorry… but I aloof had to sleep! Well, I gushed about the day in the intro, but now I see that it’s action to rain aloof about every day this week! UGH! April showers accompany May flowers, right? What do May Flowers bring? …. delay for it…. Pilgrims! One of the oldest jokes in my book! Well, abutting week, actuality in Missouri, our break at home adjustment will expire… Area will bodies go first? I apparently won’t go anywhere, for I never went anywhere afore the break at home order, except to the doctors, and my bounded watering hole… And I agnosticism I arch there for a continued time…. I’m aloof saying…. Soft Cell takes us to the accomplishment band today with their song: Tainted Love…. I achievement you accept a Marvelous Monday, and will Be Acceptable To Yourself!